AccretiveIntelligence

Equity research infrastructure

The model and the note are the same thing.

Live financial models of managed-care companies, and the research written from them — built so that every figure in a note can be traced back to the assumption that produced it, and to the filing that produced the assumption.

2 companies modelled end to end, each from its own filings
68 research surfaces, from the three statements to state-level Medicaid
10yr of filed segment history, per segment and sub-segment
3 note formats across the earnings cycle — preview, print, call

Three things, joined up

Most research is a model in one place and a document in another, reconciled by hand and by memory. These are one system, which is what makes the rest of it possible.

A model you can interrogate

Full three-statement forecast driven by segment-level assumptions, on the company’s own reporting calendar — annual, quarterly, or a mix. Change one driver and every statement, scenario and valuation moves with it, in your own copy, visible to nobody else until it is published.

Research built from the model

A preview before the print, a review of the result against sealed consensus, and a note on what the call added — written from the model’s own numbers rather than retyped from it, then scheduled and sent to a named list.

A record of what changed

Every published version keeps what it replaced, field by field, with the reason it moved. A number from six months ago still explains itself, and so does the person who changed it.

What’s inside

The model is the spine. Most of the platform is the work that has to exist underneath a forecast before it means anything — the industry it sits in, the history it came from, and the evidence for each assumption.

The model

  • Three statements on a mixed annual and quarterly axis
  • Segment forecasts built from members, price and cost
  • Scenarios — base, bull, bear, and named cases of your own
  • Results vs consensus, sealed before the print
  • EPS power, uses of cash, credit and the debt schedule
  • Excel export that computes what the app computes

Valuation

  • Historical multiples against the company’s own record
  • Projected value from growth and multiple, side by side
  • Implied return — what today’s price has to believe
  • Point-in-time consensus, reconstructed from dated guidance
  • Portfolio backtest over many start dates, against a null
  • Rating and price target, each axis argued and dated

The company

  • Company history from inception, with what the market paid
  • Segment history, ten years, segment by segment
  • Risks sized in EPS on drivers that actually move
  • Target margins, each graded by what it is sourced to
  • Management, proxy and acquisitions from the filings
  • Catalyst calendar and quarterly commentary

The industry

  • Medicare Advantage — rates, stars, benefits, SNPs
  • Medicaid — expansion, state programmes, monthly enrolment
  • Commercial — employer, exchange, and the uninsured
  • Pharmacy and PBM economics
  • Medical cost trend and industry margins by line
  • Peer scorecard and every peer’s quarterly print

How a note actually gets out

The part that usually lives in somebody’s inbox and memory. Writing, reviewing, scheduling and sending are one path, and every step of it is refusable.

01

Built from the model

Pick the company and the format. The note is generated from the current model — its figures are the model’s figures, not a transcription of them.

02

Audited before it moves

The finished note is checked against the reported figures it was built from, and against its own text. Rehearsal wording, an unverified claim or a stale figure stops it.

03

Addressed deliberately

The company’s standing distribution list, or a set of people chosen for this note. The list is resolved when it sends, so an unsubscribe in between takes effect.

04

Scheduled, and cancellable

Queued for a time you choose and visible until it fires — what is waiting, when it goes, and exactly who receives it. Nothing sends without passing every check again.

What the machinery is actually for

Nearly all of it exists to make one kind of mistake impossible: a figure reaching a reader without anyone able to say where it came from.

Built for the second company, not just the first

A platform written around one company will quietly serve that company’s answers under every other name. Its reporting calendar becomes the calendar; its segments become the segments; its peer group, its research and its executives end up on another company’s page, and nothing errors.

So the time axis, the segment tree, the revenue build, the driver registry, the research and the risk register are all declared per company rather than assumed — and the tests assert that the second company behaves, not merely that the first still does. A surface no one has researched for a company is hidden rather than filled in with somebody else’s.

Adding a company is a sequence of declarations, each one checkable on its own. It is the least glamorous work in the system and the reason a number can be trusted once there is more than one company in it.

Access is by invitation

The platform is private. If you have an account, sign in with the address it was issued to.